The USD has been undermined by doubts over the strength of the economy and intensifying political uncertainty. There has been strength in EUR and JPY, however, both have been dampened by negative interest rates. The GBP is looking increasingly shaky as its economy begins to show evidence of slowing in response to the Brexit fallout, and uncertainty has risen since the UK election.
Fed policy normalization, including a plan to begin balance sheet unwind this year, should tend to help stabilize a weaker USD, more so against EM and commodity currencies, especially if it coincides with some correction in global equities. The balance of risks is swinging towards out-performance in JPY vs. EM and commodity currencies.
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